For starters, a team’s points per game are dictated a lot by pace, or how many possessions a team averages in a 48 minute game. The same can be said about how many points a certain team is giving up.
So, with that being said, I am here to help you with Sharp’s Advanced Statistics 101. These are some of the most important advanced stats you can use in handicapping the NBA, and they all hold different levels of importance in difference scenarios.
Pace is one of the most important stats you can use when trying to handicap your NBA picks, especially when it comes to game and team totals. Pace is a stat that measures how fast a team plays, or how many possessions they average in a 48-minute game. For instance, the Kings played at an extremely fast pace this season of 100 possessions per 48 minutes. The sportsbooks recognized this and had their totals sky high most of the season, but it took a little while for them to catch on. They opened the season cashing the over in five of their first six games, and they had a stretch where they cashed the over in 18 of 26 games from the start of 2016 to around the end of February.
In fact, if you look at some of the top teams in pace this season, there is a correlation between a faster pace and cashing the over. Teams like Philadelphia, Houston and New Orleans were all three in the top ten in the league in pace, and all three combined to cash the over at 133-105-3 on the season.
You can take the same into account for slower paced teams, but the correlation is even stronger. Utah, New York, Miami and San Antonio were four of the top five under cashing teams in the league this season, and were both in the bottom five pace teams. If you include Miami and San Antonio’s playoff totals, these four teams cash the under at a combined record of 200-143-6. That’s a cash rate of 58.2 percent. Defense plays a factor (or lack thereof) as well, but pace is a great way to help your total betting.
Offensive and Defensive Rating
Speaking of offense and defense, a much better way to look at a team’s performance is their Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Instead of looking at a basic measure of a team’s points per game scored or allowed, ORtg and DRtg are both estimates of how many points a team or player produces per 100 possessions. So, it takes into account things like pace, and doesn’t discriminate against teams who play at a slower or faster pace.
For instance, this season the top ORtg team in the league was almost obviously the Golden State Warriors. They had an ORtg of 114.5, but what was even more impressive was their DRtg of 103.8, which ranked them 6th in the league in that department as well. There were only six teams that ranked in the top ten in ORtg and DRtg this season, and those six teams have a combined ATS record of 277-252-9 if you include their playoff ATS records as well. So, when you are looking at team’s and how they stack up, use these advanced stats instead of just points per game and points allowed, and it will give you a better idea of how they matchup against one another.
Advanced Stats for Player Props
This could literally be a whole other article, because there are about a million things you can look at when betting player props. However the most important really depend on what type of player props you are looking at.
For instance, you can use a player’s points per game average when looking at the over/under NBA odds for points in a game, but an even better stat to look at is Usage Rate. Usage is a formula used to measure how many plays a certain player is used on throughout a game. You can find the formula on Basketball Reference, but a high Usage Rate usually means that player is going to have the ball in his hands and be shooting a lot.
You can also use ORtg and DRtg for specific players as well, but what about a rebounding or assists prop? Instead of using their raw rebounds or assists per game, (still important, but can be misleading) look for their Assist and Rebounding Rates instead. These measure how many assists or rebounds a certain player gets while he is on the floor. So it only takes into account how many assists or rebounds were available while that player was on the floor, and it is much more accurate.
For instance, while on the floor this postseason, Russell Westbrook has an assist rate of 54 percent, which is leading all players this postseason. If you take the amount of field goals the Thunder are averaging per game, and then divide that total by Westbrooks’s minutes, you can get a better, more accurate estimate of how many field goals Westbrook is assisting on while in the game. It takes some math, but a little math to make some money never hurt anyone!
- Current Location:SJO
- Current Mood: amused
- Current Music:HUM
Click here. It's not the first video, but the second one down the page a bit. There are a couple of spots where the signal is lost, but they're short.
And another note to add that there is now a Facebook group for the LJ NBAFans community. It can be found here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/19049439
Feel free to join if you're already on Facebook.
As part of the modifications, the eight playoff teams in each conference will be seeded in order of their regular-season record. Most recently, every division winner was guaranteed a top four seed in its respective conference regardless of its record but did not receive home-court advantage if its playoff opponent had a better record.
The Board also approved changes to tiebreak criteria for playoff seeding and home-court advantage. Head-to-head results have become the first criterion to break ties for playoff seeding and home-court advantage between two teams with identical regular-season records; the second criterion is whether a team won its division. Under the old tiebreak system, a division winner was awarded the higher seed and received home-court advantage in a series if the two teams met in the playoffs.
The NBA’s Competition Committee unanimously recommended each of these changes prior to the Board of Governors vote.
Expanding our presence to other social media, the LJ NBAFans group now has a presence on Facebook that can be found at:
If you're already on Facebook, feel free to join us there, and feel free to comment.
Also, an early heads, we may want to restart the LJ NBAFans Fantasy League this season, and I'm proposing a move from Yahoo to ESPN. I played in a league on ESPN last season, a lot like Yahoo, but it has an injured reserve spot, which is awesome. If you're interested in joining the league, and if you have any thoughts on moving the league to ESPN, let me know.
Here's the photo:
CAPTION: If u would like to see @Adidas produce these jerseys comment here and I will pass it on to them and the @NBA. #LetsGoHEAT
The majority of comments so far seem to be positive, liking the creativity, and I will say they are creative. It's a color palatte that is solidly entrenched in the 80s, as would be the expected with a Miami Vice theme.
These images are fan Photoshops, the one on the left is done better than the one on the right. The one on the left is rather bland, the one on the right is a better design, but the electric teal is terrible and needs to be dialed back to about 6, to mirror more the teal used on the left, and there needs to be less of it. I also really hate the pink. Yes, I know that was one of the Miami Vice colors, that doesn't mean it has to be included, the teal is enough, or maybe swap out the pink for a warmer, more coral color, if they want to insist upon sticking to the pastel theme. Just, for the sake of peoples eyes, kill the pink.
It's a interesting idea, it might work, but can't say I actually like it as presented.
And, here they are:
I... yeah. The shorts are satin, because the 1950s were a thing, but will they bring back the shorty shorts? No! Bastards. The unis will feature "Hickory" across the front instead of "Pacers," with player name and number on the back in the standard font you would expect to see on high school jerseys. And, of course, they will be in the lovely red/gold color combo.
This is a first, a collab between an NBA team and a movie studio to
The NBA will likely move to straight 1-8 playoff seeding.
Currently, the three division winners in each conference are guaranteed a top four seed, along with the non-division winner with the best record. The logic of this rule was thrown into question this season, as the Northwest Division winning 51-31 Trail Blazers were seeded ahead of the 55-27 Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs.
Silver said that the competition committee recommended moving to straight 1-8 seeding regardless of whether a team wins their division. The Board of Governors didn’t vote on the proposal, but Silver said he expects it to pass before the start of the season.
This is a smart, overdue move. The Blazers shouldn’t be rewarded for playing in a garbage division, and the Spurs and Grizzlies shouldn’t be punished for playing in a difficult one. At a minimum, the Trail Blazers and Spurs/Grizzlies play 74 of the same 82 games; there just isn’t a big enough difference in scheduling to justify giving division winners a privileged position.
Anthony Davis, star of the NBA's next era, signs a 'next era' contract extension
The NBA’s next “best player in the game” is going to be the first to sign a contract that reflects the league’s new financial era.
[Follow Dunks Don't Lie on Tumblr: The best slams from all of basketball]
New Orleans Pelicans big man Anthony Davis, just seconds into the NBA’s free agent season, agreed to a no-brainer five-year, $145 million contract extension with the team, as first reported by Yahoo Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski. The deal will allow Davis to make 30 percent of the league’s salary cap number, one that will likely hit for right at $90 million in 2016-17, and well over the $100 million mark the following season.
Davis, who averaged over 24 points and 10 rebounds in 2014-15 while leading his Pelicans to the postseason in the loaded Western conference, will reportedly have an opt-out option following the fourth year of the extension (according to ESPN’s Marc Stein), during the 2020 offseason. Davis, by then still only just 27-years old, would be allowed to survey the ever-changing NBA scene in order to determine whether or not sticking with the Pelicans (who haven’t won a championship since entering the NBA as the Charlotte Hornets in 1989) is the best move for that stage of his career.
There are good drafts, there are bad drafts and then there's the 2000 NBA draft class.
The returns were, charitably speaking, ugly. To wit:
- The 2000 haul combined for just three All-Star appearances, all of which came in 2004, when Michael Redd, Kenyon Martin and Jamaal Magloire represented the Eastern Conference—ahead of first-year phenom LeBron James, no less. By contrast, between 1980 and 2010, only one other class has thus far logged single-digit All-Star selections (the 2010 class, with five).
- Of the 58 players selected that year, only 15 went on to spend at least a decade in the Association.
- The 2000 class featured just one All-NBA performer, Redd.
- From the opening of the preps-to-pros pipeline in 1995 to its closing in 2005, no draft was less productive, statistically speaking, than the one from 2000:
The Nets did a little reshuffling at the draft Thursday, dealing Mason Plumlee and their second-round pick to Portland for rookie forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and veteran guard Steve Blake.
The agreement signaled the end of an up-and-down two-year run for Plumlee, the First-Team All-Rookie selection, whose downfall in Brooklyn was his inability to play next to Brook Lopez.
The Nets, as a result, had two late first-round picks at Thursday’s draft — Hollis-Jefferson at No. 23, and forward Chris McCullough with their own pick at No. 29.
Included in the package to Portland was Pat Connaughton, the Notre Dame product who was chosen by the Nets with the 41st pick. Connaughton is also a pitcher who was drafted by the Orioles. GM Billy King, typically busy on draft night, also dealt two future second-round picks to Charlotte for Argentina’s Juan Valuet, a 19-year-old forward who was chosen 39th Thursday night.
Hollis-Jefferson, a 6-7 forward who attended Arizona, is a versatile wing defender who is not much of an offensive threat. He classified his contributions as “extraness.”
I'm not sure that this is a particularly good trade for Brooklyn.
(Kings Owner) Ranadive gave Cousins' agent permission to pursue Lakers trade
Here's a new wrinkle in the Sacramento Kings mess: While vice president Vlade Divac insisted their franchise player wasn't going anywhere before Thursday's NBA Draft, owner Vivek Ranadive gave DeMarcus Cousins' agent Dan Fegan approval to try to put together a trade with the Los Angeles Lakers before the draft, according to USA Today's Sam Amick:
When Fegan tried to orchestrate a trade that would send Cousins to the Los Angeles Lakers in the days leading up to the draft – one that Kings owner Vivek Ranadive gave him permission to pursue when he made it clear that Cousins wanted out – it wouldn't have shocked anyone if Divac decided to do the deal just to quiet this storm. Instead, he's trying to fix a fractured situation on his terms.
Divac is currently taking the stance that he's in charge and he won't be bullied into doing anything in particular. He obviously did not like that head coach George Karl tried to trade Cousins behind his back, and it sounds like he's not too happy with Cousins' camp, either.
As always, though, the one who really has the most power -- and is most responsible for this situation -- is the owner. The Kings hired Karl before hiring Divac, making the same mistake as when Ranadive made Michael Malone their head coach prior to bringing in Pete D'Alessandro as general manager. What Sacramento needs more than anything is a clear hierachy, and then perhaps the franchise can find some sort of cohesion. Divac has only been on this job for a few months -- this is a heck of an introduction to dealing with NBA politics as an executive.
Looking at this, with the colors on black, I don't like the Hornets teal, they could stand to change that to something less grandmotherly.
But, on the plus side, that Buzz City logo on the waistband looks pretty damn good.
2. Rockets Montrezl: Harrell PF
3. Celtics: Jordan Mickey PF
4. Lakers: Anthony Brown SG
5. 76ers: Guillermo Hernangomez C
6. Timberwolves: Rakeem Christmas C
7. 76ers: Richaun Holmes PF
8. Pistons: Darrun Hilliard II SG
9. Hornets: Juan Vaulet SF
10. Heat: Josh Richardson SG
11. Nets: Pat Connaughton SF
12. Jazz: Olivier Hanlan SG
13. Pacers: Joseph Young SG
14. Suns: Andrew Harrison PG
15. Celtics: Marcus Thornton SG
16. Bucks: Norman Powell SG
17. 76ers: Arturas Gudaitis C
18. Thunder: Dakari Johnson C
19. Wizards: Aaron White PF
20. Hawks: Marcus Eriksson SG
21. Magic: Tyler Harvey SG
22. Mavericks: Satnam Singh Bhamara C
23. Cavaliers: Sir'Dominic Pointer SF
24. Jazz: Daniel Diez SF
25. Spurs: Cady Lalanne PF
26. Pelicans: Branden Dawson SF
27. Nuggets: Nikola Radicevic PG
28. 76ers: J.P. Tokoto SF
29. Hawks Dimitrios Agravanis PF
30. 76ers: Luka Mitrovic SF
Yeah, the 76ers had a lot of picks.
2.) Los Angeles Lakers – D’Angelo Russell
3.) Philadelphia 76ers – Jahlil Okafor
4.) New York Knicks – Kristaps Porzingis
5.) Orlando Magic – Mario Hezonja
6.) Sacramento Kings – Willie Cauley-Stein
7.) Denver Nuggets – Emmanuel Mudiay
8.) Detroit Pistons – Stanley Johnson
9.) Charlotte Hornets – Frank Kaminsky
10.) Miami Heat – Justise Winslow
11.) Indiana Pacers – Myles Turner
12.) Utah Jazz – Trey Lyles
13.) Phoenix Suns – Devin Booker
14.) Oklahoma City Thunder – Cameron Payne
15.) Atlanta Hawks – Kelly Oubre Jr.
Update: **Pick traded to the Washington Wizards**
16.) Boston Celtics – Terry Rozier
17.) Milwaukee Bucks – Rashad Vaughn
18.) Houston Rockets – Sam Dekker
19.) Washington Wizards – Jerian Grant
Update: **This pick was traded to Atlanta**
Update 2: **Jerian Grant will head to New York and Hardaway, Jr. will head to Atlanta while Kelly Oubre will head to Washington**
20.) Toronto Raptors – Delon Wright
21.) Dallas Mavericks – Justin Anderson
22.) Chicago Bulls – Bobby Portis
23.) Portland Trailblazers – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.
24.) Cleveland Cavaliers – Tyus Jones
Update: **This pick was traded to Minnesota Timberwolves**
25.) Memphis Grizzlies– Jarell Martin
26.) San Antonio Spurs – Nikola Miltunov
27.) Los Angeles Lakers – Larry Nance Jr.
28.) Boston Celtics – R.J. Hunter
29.) Brooklyn Nets – Chris McCullough
30.) Golden State Warriors – Kevon Looney
2 Lakers: D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG (that sound you heard was Lakers Nation losing it's collective shit)
3 76ers: Jahlil Okafor, C (So, will the Sixers stop tanking now?)
4 Knicks: Kristaps Porzingis, PF (Knick fans booed this pick, obviously, because they're Knick fans)
5 Magic: Mario Hezonja, SG/SF
6 Kings: Willie Cauley-Stein, C (perhaps be on the look out for a DeMarcus Cousins trade in the near future)
7 Nuggets: Emmanuel Mudiay, PG
8 Pistons: Stanley Johnson, SF
9 Hornets: Frank Kaminsky, SF/PF
10 Heat: Justise Winslow, SF
NBPA Looking Into 76ers' Salary Handling Under CBA
The NBPA told agents in a meeting on Monday that it will actively look into the 76ers’ handling of the CBA, such as salary distributions, the cap floor and contract format loopholes. For the NBPA, Philadelphia’s approach over the past several seasons may not be a technical violation of collective bargaining as much as it is one of the spirit of negotiating under the CBA.
An NBPA spokesperson confirmed Tuesday the union’s plan to pursue the 76ers’ issue if there is a violation found.
Over the past two seasons, the 76ers have compiled a 37-127 record, staying below the 90 percent salary floor for majority of the campaigns before late season signings or trades.
It needs to be stressed that this investigation does not appear to relate to a specific violation. Rather, the union seems so concerned by Philadelphia's way of doing business that they're willing to dig deeper to see if there is a deliberately uncompetitive pattern at play. There's no way of knowing what that could be until they find further information (or a lack thereof), but evidence would essentially have to show that Sixers executive actively chose not to field a competitive team or cut players for no good reason other than they wanted to keep costs low.
Yes, a new era indeed.
And new unis
These... do not look good. The logo looks like one you'd see for that new gastropub down the street with the overpriced burgers and an IPA heavy beer selection. What, they couldn't even put the basketball on the uni front? What the hell?!?!
Look, I get it, new owner, new, non-sucky team, they want a new look. But this should not have been that new look. It's looks... cold and bland.
Needless to say, a lot of people hate the new look.
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — The New Orleans Pelicans have decided that 60-year-old NBA coaching veteran Alvin Gentry is the best candidate to mold a young roster featuring 22-year-old budding superstar Anthony Davis.
The Pelicans hired the Golden State assistant Saturday night. Terms of the deal weren't disclosed.
"We conducted an extensive coaching search that identified Alvin Gentry as the right person to lead our team," Pelicans general manager Dell Demps said in a statement. "Alvin is a well-respected coach that brings many years of experience, a wealth of knowledge, creativity and leadership."
Gentry will remain with Golden State until the Warriors complete the NBA Finals against Cleveland.
"I'm truly honored for the opportunity to lead the Pelicans as their head coach and am anxious to get started," Gentry said in a statement. "However, my responsibilities with the Pelicans will begin immediately after the NBA Finals are completed. Until then, my complete focus for the next two-plus weeks will be with the Warriors and the NBA Finals."
Former player Scott Skiles named Magic coach
In a move that has been expected, the Orlando Magic named Scott Skiles their coach on Friday.
Skiles returns to the franchise where he spent five years as a player and set the NBA's single-game assist record with 30 on Dec. 30, 1990.
Skiles has coached in the NBA on and off since 1999-2000, and this will be the fourth team he has coached after stints with Phoenix, Chicago and Milwaukee. He has a regular-season career record of 443-433 and is 18-24 in the playoffs. His last job was with the Milwaukee Bucks, and he parted ways with the team after 32 games of the 2012-13 season.
In a statement General manager Rob Hennigan lauded Skiles' 13 years as an NBA head coach.
"Scott clearly distinguished himself as a tremendous fit," Hennigan said. "Our young roster will benefit greatly from Scott's extensive head coaching experience and commitment to teaching smart, physical, unselfish basketball. We believe in Scott's ability to establish a culture of winning habits and accountability that will help guide our team in a positive direction."
Bulls confident Fred Hoiberg will accept coaching offer, sources say
CHICAGO -- The Bulls are quietly confident that Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg will accept an offer to become their next head coach, according to multiple league sources.
News of mutual interest between Hoiberg, who played for the Bulls for four of his 10 NBA seasons and is a close friend of general manager Gar Forman, and Chicago isn't a surprise. He has close relationships with several people in the Bulls' front office and is well regarded for his success in Ames.
Bleacher Report and the Chicago Tribune also reported that a deal between Hoiberg and the Bulls is expected. The Orlando Sentinel reported Friday that Hoiberg also interviewed with the Magic for their head-coaching vacancy, but Orlando has named Scott Skiles its coach.
Earlier this week, the Ames Tribune, citing sources with knowledge of the situation, reported that Hoiberg has told at least one recruit that his future at Iowa State is uncertain.
“The Chicago Bulls have a history of achieving great success on and off the court. These accomplishments have been possible because of an organizational culture where input from all parts of the organization has been welcomed and valued, there has been a willingness to participate in a free flow of information, and there have been clear and consistent goals. While the head of each department of the organization must be free to make final decisions regarding his department, there must be free and open interdepartmental discussion and consideration of everyone's ideas and opinions. These internal discussions must not be considered an invasion of turf, and must remain private. Teams that consistently perform at the highest levels are able to come together and be unified across the organization-staff, players, coaches, management and ownership. When everyone is on the same page, trust develops and teams can grow and succeed together. Unfortunately, there has been a departure from this culture. To ensure that the Chicago Bulls can continue to grow and succeed, we have decided that a change in the head coaching position is required. Days like today are difficult, but necessary for us to achieve our goals and fulfill our commitments to our fans. I appreciate the contributions that Tom Thibodeau made to the Bulls organization. I have always respected his love of the game and wish him well in the future.” (sauce)
It's no big secret that his relationship with the Bulls org was contentious, so, despite that history, Thibodeau is still expected to attract interest. The Pelicans, Nuggets and Magic need new coaches and are looking to raise their teams to the next level, so, it's a retty good bet that Thib's will be on the sidelines next season.